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Decisioning and Next Best Action

Customer Growth & CVM

Help customers return to the right pack, not just the next promotion.

When a regular buying pattern changes, compare a relevant offer, a service check and no action before contacting the customer.

Customer value is lost because actions are broad, late, conflicting or not measured against doing nothing.

Usually owned by Chief Commercial Officer

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The whole journey, end to endRuns end to end

Runs end to end, configured for your organisation and market.

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The decision on this pageSample

Move the inputs and the checks, the ranking and the decision are computed again. Sample records, computed in your browser.

Move the inputs
Against your own systemsWorking session

A pilot prepares this decision on your data, systems and policy, with the comparison agreed first.

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More in Decisioning and Next Best Action

The decision, on the sample records

Regular data buyer: no pack for 6 weeks, 41% of the last one used, contacted 25 days ago.

  1. Offer a pack that matches how they actually use dataChosenSmall weekly pack · 190
  2. Discount the pack they were already buyingPermittedMonthly pack · 900
  3. Check for a service or coverage problem firstPermitted
  4. Take no action, and record whyPermitted

Every check permits it, so the ranking chose the option worth the most to both sides.

Computed for a generic sample market. Move the inputs and watch it change

Sample records.

The demonstration below runs on a generic sample. Tell us your market and it will use figures and a name that fit.

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The decision

Should the operator offer a different pack, check whether the service is working, wait, or do nothing at all?

A customer who bought a data pack every month for a year has bought nothing for six weeks. Nothing has broken and nobody has complained.

How one decision is made, from the signal to the record it leaves.
  1. The signal

    A regular buying pattern stops, and the gap passes the point where it stops looking like a pause.

  2. What it may read
    • Recharge and pack purchase history
    • Recent data usage against the pack they were buying
    • Service quality at the locations they use
    • Contact permission and when they were last contacted
    • Open care or service cases
  3. Options ranked
    • Offer a pack that matches how they actually use dataActMarketing consentContact frequencyFair valueMargin floorOpen service case
    • Discount the pack they were already buyingActMarketing consentContact frequencyFair valueMargin floorOpen service case
    • Check for a service or coverage problem firstInvestigate firstAlways available
    • Take no action, and record whyDo nothingAlways available
  4. What can refuse it
    • Marketing consentHas this customer agreed to be contacted for offers, on this channel?Consent and preference system
    • Contact frequencyWould this exceed how often the customer may be contacted?Campaign management system
    • Fair valueDoes the proposed pack suit how much they actually use?Product catalogue and pricing
    • Margin floorDoes the incentive leave the action worth taking?Commercial finance
    • Open service caseIs there an unresolved fault or complaint on this account?Care and service management
  5. Who acts

    The operator's campaign management and charging systems. HeuriTel proposes the action and records it; neither the offer nor the charge happens anywhere else.

  6. What is kept
    • The inputs used, and how fresh each one was
    • The eligibility rule and its version
    • Every option considered, with the reason it was allowed or refused
    • The option chosen, including when that was no action
    • The policy and consent checks, and their results
    • The named approver, where approval was required
    • The execution request and the receipt that came back
    • The comparison group the result will be measured against
What it does

Three things it helps you decide or do, each visible in the run below.

  • Understand why the buying pattern changed

    Recent usage, recharge and contact history are read before anything is proposed, so a customer who has gone quiet and a customer with a service fault are told apart.

  • Compare appropriate options and stop those that fail checks

    A right-sized pack, a service check and no action are ranked together, and consent, contact frequency, fair value, margin and an open case can each refuse.

  • Keep the decision and explain how a pilot would measure its effect

    Every run keeps its inputs, checks and outcome, and a pilot compares treated customers against a holdout before any value is claimed.

Run it

Recover a customer who has quietly stopped buying data packs

The records below are a sample and the figures are generic. Say which market you are in and they will fit it. Move any input and the checks, the ranking and the decision are computed again.

A shopkeeper serving a customer at a mobile-money counter.

The customer, as the records have them

Customer · ILL-NEU-0001 · 36 months · Regular data buyer

Consented to be contacted on
With none of them, there is no permitted way to reach them.

Unchanged, as the sample records have it.

The decision

Offer a pack that matches how they actually use data

Their usage fits a smaller pack than the one they were buying. A fair-value match is more likely to be taken than a discount on the pack they already stopped buying.

Small weekly pack · 190 · 1.5 GB for 7 days · 72 margin after the incentive

Every check permits it, so the ranking chose the option worth the most to both sides.

The checks, and who owns each answer

CheckResultWhy
Marketing consentConsent and preference systemPermitsConsented on SMS.
Contact frequencyCampaign management systemPermitsLast contacted 25 days ago; the floor is 14.
Fair valueProduct catalogue and pricingPermitsUsing 41% of the pack they were buying, so a smaller pack is the fair match.
Margin floorCommercial financePermits72 remains on Small weekly pack after the incentive.
Open service caseCare and service managementPermitsNo unresolved case on this account.

The open-case check reads this market’s own records rather than a field on the customer, so it is not one of the controls.

Every option considered, including doing nothing

  • Offer a pack that matches how they actually use dataChosenPermitted

    Small weekly pack · 190 · 72 margin

  • Discount the pack they were already buyingPermitted

    Monthly pack · 900 · 290 margin

  • Check for a service or coverage problem firstPermitted
  • Take no action, and record whyPermitted

The customer’s outcome

A smaller weekly pack matching your recent usage is available. Reply 1 to accept.

Reply 0 to stop receiving these offers.

English · SMS

The failure this market demonstrates

Usage or care data has not refreshed inside the window the decision requires, so eligibility cannot be established.

No market has been configured, so usage and care data have no agreed freshness window. Eligibility cannot be established.

Remedy. No action is taken on stale context. The decision returns no-action with the source and its age named.

Handed to Data operations, with the source and freshness recorded.

Sample records, computed in your browser. Record set FX-NEUTRAL v3, scenario SCN-PACK-DROPOUT. See the whole journey, with the receipt and the evidence record

Hypothesis

A customer who is drifting away is cheaper to keep than to replace, and an offer sent over an unresolved fault costs more than it earns.

Desired result: Incremental revenue or retention; lower contact waste; improved conversion with margin guardrails

Modelled not observed

A run on the sample records shows the decision, the checks it passed and the receipt the responsible system would return. No incremental value is modelled on this page.

Ingest → qualify → score → apply limits/consent → assign control → execute approved action → capture delivery and business outcome → monitor/retrain

Observed

Nothing yet. Measurement begins in a pilot’s validate stage, on your systems, against a comparison agreed first.

Randomised holdout where feasible; intent-to-treat primary view; pre-declared denominator; guardrails for complaints, margin and opt-out

Measured on: Eligible population; treatment rate; conversion; incremental revenue; ARPU; churn; contact rate; margin; opt-out; decision latency

Assumptions, costs and the record’s five answers
  1. 01
    Desired result

    The result wanted.

    Incremental revenue or retention; lower contact waste; improved conversion with margin guardrails

  2. 02
    Mechanism

    The mechanism that could produce it.

    Ingest → qualify → score → apply limits/consent → assign control → execute approved action → capture delivery and business outcome → monitor/retrain

  3. 03
    Evidence required

    The records kept to show it.

    Decision log; eligibility snapshot; price/order response; delivery receipt; control assignment; revenue/outcome ledger

  4. 04
    Costs and risks

    The cost, and the ways it can go wrong.

    Costs: Setup fee + annual product subscription; optional managed execution fee; optional verified-outcome fee with agreed baseline

    If it fails: Fail closed on eligibility/consent/price; queue retryable events; do not duplicate orders; route exception to campaign operations

  5. 05
    Measurement approach

    The measure that shows it helped.

    Randomised holdout where feasible; intent-to-treat primary view; pre-declared denominator; guardrails for complaints, margin and opt-out

    Measured on: Eligible population; treatment rate; conversion; incremental revenue; ARPU; churn; contact rate; margin; opt-out; decision latency

A saved run keeps the decision and its receipt: what was decided, which checks refused, and what the responsible system returned. It does not show incremental value. That needs the comparison above, over an agreed period, against a baseline finance has accepted.

The business side

The change
Accepted, provisioned save and incremental contribution.
Running cost
Setup fee + annual product subscription; optional managed execution fee; optional verified-outcome fee with agreed baseline
What evidence supports it
Cohort definition, model version, policy decision, assignment and outcome.
Technical detail

Inputs, decision logic, systems touched, records kept.

Four questions an evaluation asks in a different order every time. Every field is the workbook’s own, unedited.

What would we need from your systems, and how much history?

Attributes required

  • customer_id
  • account_type
  • tenure_days
  • active_products
  • recharge_30d
  • usage_30d
  • revenue_30d
  • last_contact
  • consent_status
  • outcome_label

Also useful, not required

  • Network experience
  • digital clickstream
  • complaints
  • location cohort
  • household/account links
  • partner purchases

8-12 weeks of customer, usage, revenue, product, contact and outcome history; stable customer key; one executable channel

The 22 definitions underneath

22 in this product

  1. HeuriTel CVMDecision definitionHT-0001

    Identify eligible records for cvm, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0001
  2. HeuriTel Customer 360Decision definitionHT-0002

    Identify eligible records for customer 360, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0002
  3. HeuriTel Customer SegmentationDecision definitionHT-0003

    Identify eligible records for customer segmentation, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0003
  4. HeuriTel Micro-SegmentationDecision definitionHT-0004

    Identify eligible records for micro-segmentation, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0004
  5. HeuriTel Customer LifecycleDecision definitionHT-0005

    Identify eligible records for customer lifecycle, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0005
  6. HeuriTel Next Best ActionDecision definitionHT-0006

    Rank eligible commercial or service actions for each customer, including do nothing, under consent, contact, margin and product rules.

    /d/HT-0006
  7. HeuriTel Next Best OfferDecision definitionHT-0007

    Rank only offers the customer can buy and the operator can fulfil, then capture order, margin and incremental conversion.

    /d/HT-0007
  8. HeuriTel Churn PreventionDecision definitionHT-0008

    Identify customers with a defined near-term churn risk, select only economically justified retention actions, and measure incremental saves against a holdout.

    /d/HT-0008
  9. HeuriTel RetentionDecision definitionHT-0009

    Identify eligible records for retention, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0009
  10. HeuriTel Win-BackDecision definitionHT-0010

    Identify eligible records for win-back, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0010
  11. HeuriTel Dormant Customer ReactivationDecision definitionHT-0011

    Identify eligible records for dormant customer reactivation, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0011
  12. HeuriTel Customer Lifetime ValueDecision definitionHT-0012

    Identify eligible records for customer lifetime value, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0012
  13. HeuriTel ARPU GrowthDecision definitionHT-0013

    Identify eligible records for arpu growth, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0013
  14. HeuriTel UpsellDecision definitionHT-0014

    Identify eligible records for upsell, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0014
  15. HeuriTel Cross-SellDecision definitionHT-0015

    Identify eligible records for cross-sell, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0015
  16. HeuriTel Prepaid-to-Postpaid MigrationDecision definitionHT-0016

    Identify eligible records for prepaid-to-postpaid migration, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0016
  17. HeuriTel High-Value Customer ManagementDecision definitionHT-0017

    Identify eligible records for high-value customer management, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0017
  18. HeuriTel New Customer OnboardingDecision definitionHT-0018

    Identify eligible records for new customer onboarding, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0018
  19. HeuriTel Usage GrowthDecision definitionHT-0019

    Identify eligible records for usage growth, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0019
  20. HeuriTel Share-of-Wallet GrowthDecision definitionHT-0020

    Identify eligible records for share-of-wallet growth, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0020
  21. HeuriTel Recharge-to-Usage ConversionDecision definitionHT-0021

    Use customer affordability, usage, renewal and margin data to improve recharge-to-usage conversion while controlling cannibalisation and measuring incremental value.

    /d/HT-0021
  22. HeuriTel Customer Value MigrationDecision definitionHT-0022

    Identify eligible records for customer value migration, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0022

Search definitions across every product

Implementing it

Four stages, and what has to be true before the next one starts.

12-16 weeks to pilot; 2-4 additional weeks per market after reusable interfaces exist. A team of 8 roles, named in the record rather than promised.

  1. 01

    Scope

    One use case, one value unit and a denominator finance has agreed to. Without these there is nothing a later result can be compared against.

    • Confirm value unit
    • select use case
    • baseline denominator
  2. 02

    Connect

    The attributes mapped from your systems, and the decision and outcome interfaces working in both directions.

    • map attributes
    • integrate decision and outcome APIs
  3. 03

    Validate

    Eligibility agreed, a dry run with nothing sent, then a controlled pilot with a holdout that is actually respected.

    • build eligibility
    • dry run
    • controlled pilot
  4. 04

    Operate

    The live loop: decide, check, execute through your systems, capture what came back, and measure against the control.

    • Ingest
    • qualify
    • score
    • apply limits/consent
    • assign control
    • execute approved action
    • capture delivery and business outcome
    • monitor/retrain

Who does it. 1 telecom product lead · 1 CVM specialist · 1 data engineer · 1 ML engineer · 1 integration developer · 0.5 QA · 0.5 DevSecOps · 1 deployment coordinator

Four states are tracked, and each is assessed against your systems.

Readiness is assessed per client: nothing is offered as pilot-ready until your data, your integration and your authority have been checked.

Readiness

Needs client data and integration review

The client’s data and integration position.
Runtime / build state

Target product definition

What exists as running software.
Surface state

Not audited

Whether this product shows the entry anywhere.
Client status

Not assessed

Where a named client has reached.

Next steps from here.

22 definitions sit under Customer Growth & CVM. The two links that matter first are the journey this page has been running a piece of, and the rest of the family it belongs to.

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