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Experimentation and Value

Revenue, Margin & Commercial Spend

Spend incentives where they earn a margin, and stop the discount that pays for a sale that would have happened anyway.

Customer, product and campaign profitability are read before an incentive, discount, bonus or subsidy is chosen, and every spend decision is measured against the customers who received nothing.

For Commercial, CVM and finance teams accountable for retention and campaign spend and the margin it returns.

The decision, annotated from the record

A retention campaign has a budget, a list of customers and a discount everyone on the list would receive.

For each customer on the list: an incentive, a smaller one, something that is not money, or nothing.

  1. The incentive, where the customer's margin clears the floor after itConsidered
  2. A smaller incentive or a non-monetary alternativeConsidered
  3. Hold the spend and route the budget question to financeConsidered
  4. No incentive, where the customer would have stayedConsidered

Before anything reaches the customer: Margin floor, incentive budget, price and catalogue, contact cap and consent checks pass.

What would reach them: Spend the incentive only where the margin clears, hold the rest, and route the budget question to finance with the evidence. On SMS, App, USSD.

Annotated, not computed. No engine runs on this page. Read the journey in full

No demonstration is configured for this journey yet.

Configured for

Government or public agency

Change
The decision

For each customer on the list: an incentive, a smaller one, something that is not money, or nothing.

A retention campaign has a budget and a list. Everyone on the list would get the same discount, including the customers who were staying anyway.

  • The incentive, where the customer's margin clears the floor after it
  • A smaller incentive or a non-monetary alternative
  • Hold the spend and route the budget question to finance
  • No incentive, where the customer would have stayed
What it does

Three things it helps you decide or do.

  • See profitability by customer, product and campaign before spending

    ARPU, margin and profitability by customer, product and campaign, with content, partner and AI margin included, are read before an offer's cost is set.

    • customer_id
    • account_type
    • tenure_days
    • active_products
    • recharge_30d
    • usage_30d
    • revenue_30d
    • last_contact
    • consent_status
    • outcome_label
  • Choose the incentive, discount or bonus that clears the margin floor, or none

    Incentive, discount, bonus, promotion, subsidy and offer-cost optimisation choose from approved actions including no action, and a price or catalogue mismatch or a contact cap refuses.

    • Offer
    • service message
    • reward
    • channel change
    • human follow-up
    • suppress
    • do nothing
  • Measure the increment, not the spend

    Retention and campaign spend are measured against a control assignment, with the revenue and outcome ledger showing what the spend returned.

    • Decision log
    • eligibility snapshot
    • price/order response
    • delivery receipt
    • control assignment
    • revenue/outcome ledger
The journey

Spend the incentive where it earns a margin, and nowhere else

No demonstration is configured for this product yet.

Revenue, Margin & Commercial Spend: the situation this product is about

Commercial finance, CVM and campaign teams

StepWhat the customer experiencesWhat the operator does
The momentThe moment that started it.A retention campaign has a budget, a list of customers and a discount everyone on the list would receive.Reads customer, product and campaign profitability, incentive cost and the margin floor, budget position for the period, consent and the contact cap.
The decisionThe decision to be made.Nothing reaches the customer yet.Ranks an incentive, a smaller one, a non-monetary alternative or nothing for each customer against their profitability and the margin floor.
The safeguardsThe conditions that stop it.Still nothing. No action is sent until every check has passed.Margin floor, incentive budget, price and catalogue, contact cap and consent checks pass.
The actionThe action that reaches the customer.Spend the incentive only where the margin clears, hold the rest, and route the budget question to finance with the evidence. Reaches them on SMS, App, USSD, in Kiswahili, English.Recommends. The system that holds the right confirms, charges or provisions.
When it goes wrongRefusal, failure and recovery.The margin floor is set on the wrong pack and every incentive on the list clears it, so the campaign spends its budget on customers it did not need to keep.The control group shows no lift, the spend is stopped at the next review, and the margin floor is re-set with the evidence before another period is paid.
The resultThe change it made.What changed for them is what is counted; nothing else is claimed.Incremental margin against a held-out group, net of the incentives paid.
The proofThe proof anyone can check.Can be answered for, later, from the record.Customer profitability, incentive cost, budget position, ranking reasons, control assignment, spend record and outcome ledger.

Hypothesis

An incentive paid where it changed a decision earns its margin; one paid where nothing would have changed is the budget's leak.

Desired result: Incremental revenue or retention; lower contact waste; improved conversion with margin guardrails

Modelled not observed

No figure is modelled for this journey. The mechanism that could produce the result is stated instead.

Ingest → qualify → score → apply limits/consent → assign control → execute approved action → capture delivery and business outcome → monitor/retrain

Observed

Nothing yet. Measurement begins in a pilot’s validate stage, on your systems, against a comparison agreed first.

Randomised holdout where feasible; intent-to-treat primary view; pre-declared denominator; guardrails for complaints, margin and opt-out

Measured on: Eligible population; treatment rate; conversion; incremental revenue; ARPU; churn; contact rate; margin; opt-out; decision latency

Assumptions, costs and the record’s five answers
  1. 01
    Desired result

    The result wanted.

    Incremental revenue or retention; lower contact waste; improved conversion with margin guardrails

  2. 02
    Mechanism

    The mechanism that could produce it.

    Ingest → qualify → score → apply limits/consent → assign control → execute approved action → capture delivery and business outcome → monitor/retrain

  3. 03
    Evidence required

    The records kept to show it.

    Decision log; eligibility snapshot; price/order response; delivery receipt; control assignment; revenue/outcome ledger

  4. 04
    Costs and risks

    The cost, and the ways it can go wrong.

    Costs: Setup fee + annual product subscription; optional managed execution fee; optional verified-outcome fee with agreed baseline

    If it fails: Fail closed on eligibility/consent/price; queue retryable events; do not duplicate orders; route exception to campaign operations

  5. 05
    Measurement approach

    The measure that shows it helped.

    Randomised holdout where feasible; intent-to-treat primary view; pre-declared denominator; guardrails for complaints, margin and opt-out

    Measured on: Eligible population; treatment rate; conversion; incremental revenue; ARPU; churn; contact rate; margin; opt-out; decision latency

Nothing has been observed for this product. Every line above is the record's own design intent; measurement begins in a pilot's validate stage, on your systems, with the comparison agreed first.

The business side

The change
Incremental margin against a held-out group, net of the incentives paid.
Running cost
Setup fee + annual product subscription; optional managed execution fee; optional verified-outcome fee with agreed baseline
What evidence supports it
Customer profitability, incentive cost, budget position, ranking reasons, control assignment, spend record and outcome ledger.
Technical detail

Inputs, decision logic, systems touched, records kept.

Four questions an evaluation asks in a different order every time. Every field is the workbook’s own, unedited.

What would we need from your systems, and how much history?

Attributes required

  • customer_id
  • account_type
  • tenure_days
  • active_products
  • recharge_30d
  • usage_30d
  • revenue_30d
  • last_contact
  • consent_status
  • outcome_label

Also useful, not required

  • Network experience
  • digital clickstream
  • complaints
  • location cohort
  • household/account links
  • partner purchases

8-12 weeks of customer, usage, revenue, product, contact and outcome history; stable customer key; one executable channel

The 18 definitions underneath

18 in this product

  1. HeuriTel Revenue GrowthDecision definitionHT-0220

    Identify eligible records for revenue growth, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0220
  2. HeuriTel ARPU IntelligenceDecision definitionHT-0221

    Identify eligible records for arpu intelligence, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0221
  3. HeuriTel Margin IntelligenceDecision definitionHT-0222

    Identify eligible records for margin intelligence, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0222
  4. HeuriTel Customer ProfitabilityDecision definitionHT-0223

    Identify eligible records for customer profitability, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0223
  5. HeuriTel Product ProfitabilityDecision definitionHT-0224

    Identify eligible records for product profitability, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0224
  6. HeuriTel Campaign ProfitabilityDecision definitionHT-0225

    Identify eligible records for campaign profitability, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0225
  7. HeuriTel Retention SpendDecision definitionHT-0226

    Identify eligible records for retention spend, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0226
  8. HeuriTel Campaign SpendDecision definitionHT-0227

    Identify eligible records for campaign spend, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0227
  9. HeuriTel Incentive OptimisationDecision definitionHT-0228

    Identify eligible records for incentive optimisation, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0228
  10. HeuriTel Discount OptimisationDecision definitionHT-0229

    Identify eligible records for discount optimisation, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0229
  11. HeuriTel Bonus OptimisationDecision definitionHT-0230

    Identify eligible records for bonus optimisation, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0230
  12. HeuriTel Promotion OptimisationDecision definitionHT-0231

    Identify eligible records for promotion optimisation, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0231
  13. HeuriTel Content MarginDecision definitionHT-0232

    Select, bundle, sell and retain the right content margin proposition using eligibility, partner cost, entitlement and incremental margin controls.

    /d/HT-0232
  14. HeuriTel Partner MarginDecision definitionHT-0233

    Identify eligible records for partner margin, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0233
  15. HeuriTel AI MarginDecision definitionHT-0234

    Identify eligible records for ai margin, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0234
  16. HeuriTel Commercial PerformanceDecision definitionHT-0235

    Identify eligible records for commercial performance, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0235
  17. HeuriTel Offer Cost OptimisationDecision definitionHT-0236

    Identify eligible records for offer cost optimisation, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0236
  18. HeuriTel Subsidy OptimisationDecision definitionHT-0237

    Identify eligible records for subsidy optimisation, choose from approved actions including no action, execute through the system of record, and measure the agreed business outcome.

    /d/HT-0237

Search definitions across every product

Implementing it

Four stages, and what has to be true before the next one starts.

12-16 weeks to pilot; 2-4 additional weeks per market after reusable interfaces exist. A team of 8 roles, named in the record rather than promised.

  1. 01

    Scope

    One use case, one value unit and a denominator finance has agreed to. Without these there is nothing a later result can be compared against.

    • Confirm value unit
    • select use case
    • baseline denominator
  2. 02

    Connect

    The attributes mapped from your systems, and the decision and outcome interfaces working in both directions.

    • map attributes
    • integrate decision and outcome APIs
  3. 03

    Validate

    Eligibility agreed, a dry run with nothing sent, then a controlled pilot with a holdout that is actually respected.

    • build eligibility
    • dry run
    • controlled pilot
  4. 04

    Operate

    The live loop: decide, check, execute through your systems, capture what came back, and measure against the control.

    • Ingest
    • qualify
    • score
    • apply limits/consent
    • assign control
    • execute approved action
    • capture delivery and business outcome
    • monitor/retrain

Who does it. 1 telecom product lead · 1 CVM specialist · 1 data engineer · 1 ML engineer · 1 integration developer · 0.5 QA · 0.5 DevSecOps · 1 deployment coordinator

Four states are tracked, and each is assessed against your systems.

Readiness is assessed per client: nothing is offered as pilot-ready until your data, your integration and your authority have been checked.

Readiness

Needs client data and integration review

The client’s data and integration position.
Runtime / build state

Target product definition

What exists as running software.
Surface state

Not audited

Whether this product shows the entry anywhere.
Client status

Not assessed

Where a named client has reached.

Next steps from here.

18 definitions sit under Revenue, Margin & Commercial Spend. The two links that matter first are the journey this page describes, and the rest of the family it belongs to.

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