Pricing, pack and CVM teams
A customer keeps renewing a monthly pack and uses a third of it. Another keeps buying daily packs that cost more than the weekly one would.
A pilot's requirements are specified: the data, the authority and the consent design.
Seen by the customer · App, Kiswahili
From the record, not a run: what would reach them, on App, USSD, SMS, Retail, in Kiswahili, English.
What happened
A customer's usage has drifted away from the pack they keep buying.
A customer keeps renewing a monthly pack and uses a third of it. Another keeps buying daily packs that cost more than the weekly one would.
What it reads
Checks before anything is sent
Affordability, margin, cannibalisation, catalogue and consent checks pass.
Every option considered, including doing nothing
No action is a valid outcome, and it is recorded with its reason. Nothing is computed on this page: the options are the record's own, and no run has decided anything.
The shape of the record, with no values. A reference appears only after a run is saved.
Hypothesis
A pack that fits is renewed; a pack that does not is abandoned, and a discount on the wrong pack costs margin without keeping anyone.
Desired result: Incremental revenue or retention; lower contact waste; improved conversion with margin guardrails
Modelled not observed
No figure is modelled for this journey. The mechanism that could produce the result is stated instead.
Ingest → qualify → score → apply limits/consent → assign control → execute approved action → capture delivery and business outcome → monitor/retrain
Observed
Nothing yet. Measurement begins in a pilot’s validate stage, on your systems, against a comparison agreed first.
Randomised holdout where feasible; intent-to-treat primary view; pre-declared denominator; guardrails for complaints, margin and opt-out
Measured on: Eligible population; treatment rate; conversion; incremental revenue; ARPU; churn; contact rate; margin; opt-out; decision latency
The result wanted.
Incremental revenue or retention; lower contact waste; improved conversion with margin guardrails
The mechanism that could produce it.
Ingest → qualify → score → apply limits/consent → assign control → execute approved action → capture delivery and business outcome → monitor/retrain
The records kept to show it.
Decision log; eligibility snapshot; price/order response; delivery receipt; control assignment; revenue/outcome ledger
The cost, and the ways it can go wrong.
Costs: Setup fee + annual product subscription; optional managed execution fee; optional verified-outcome fee with agreed baseline
If it fails: Fail closed on eligibility/consent/price; queue retryable events; do not duplicate orders; route exception to campaign operations
The measure that shows it helped.
Randomised holdout where feasible; intent-to-treat primary view; pre-declared denominator; guardrails for complaints, margin and opt-out
Measured on: Eligible population; treatment rate; conversion; incremental revenue; ARPU; churn; contact rate; margin; opt-out; decision latency
Nothing has been observed for this product. Every line above is the record's own design intent; measurement begins in a pilot's validate stage, on your systems, with the comparison agreed first.
The business side
| Step | What the customer experiences | What the operator does |
|---|---|---|
| The momentThe moment that started it. | A customer's usage has drifted away from the pack they keep buying. | Reads usage against the pack over the last three renewals, the pack ladder and each pack's margin, affordability from recharge denominations, consent and recent contact. |
| The decisionThe decision to be made. | Nothing reaches the customer yet. | Ranks a better-fitting pack, a price change, a renewal reminder or no action. |
| The safeguardsThe conditions that stop it. | Still nothing. No action is sent until every check has passed. | Affordability, margin, cannibalisation, catalogue and consent checks pass. |
| The actionThe action that reaches the customer. | Present one pack the customer can afford and the operator can fulfil, and provision it on confirmation. Reaches them on App, USSD, SMS, Retail, in Kiswahili, English. | Recommends. The system that holds the right confirms, charges or provisions. |
| When it goes wrongRefusal, failure and recovery. | The better-fitting pack would cannibalise a pack the customer would have kept buying, and the margin floor is missed. | The cannibalisation check stops the offer, the renewal reminder goes instead, and the pack ladder question is routed to pricing with the evidence. |
| The resultThe change it made. | What changed for them is what is counted; nothing else is claimed. | Accepted pack change and incremental margin against the pack they kept buying. |
| The proofThe proof anyone can check. | Can be answered for, later, from the record. | Usage window, pack ladder version, ranking reasons, margin floor, confirmation and order. |
Operator systems remain authoritative. HeuriTel reads these to propose an action; it does not decide on their behalf.
What goes wrong
The better-fitting pack would cannibalise a pack the customer would have kept buying, and the margin floor is missed.
What happens then
The cannibalisation check stops the offer, the renewal reminder goes instead, and the pack ladder question is routed to pricing with the evidence.
When usage and the pack drift apart, compare a better fit, a price change, a reminder and leaving the ladder alone, before the margin floor is spent.
the longer-horizon decision that reads the same usage and consent signals
where the margin floor and the incentive budget are set
A pilot's requirements are specified: the data, the authority and the consent design.